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W W W . F O R W A R D J A N E S V I L L E . C O M
The Problemwith Predictions
• There will be collegiate political
science classes dedicated
exclusively to the study of this
election. The rise of Donald Trump
defied every law of how this stuff is
supposed to work. He withstood
revelations that would have stopped
any other candidate dead in his or her
tracks—and he did it over and over
again.
• Mr. Trump also rewrote a lot of the
conventional wisdom about how
political campaigns are supposed to
be run. Instead of focusing solely on
traditional ‘get out the vote’ (GOTV)
efforts, he energized his base through
rallies and social media. I’m a
campaign purist, and I didn’t think this
strategy would work. But if this
election taught me one thing, it’s that I
should abandon some of my political
preconceptions. After all, did that 8:30
pm GOTV phone call (or calls) make
you more likely to vote on Election
Day? Or did it just annoy you? Lots of
old school campaign traditions—
phone banks, door to door
campaigning, TV commercials during
the six o’clock news—may be falling
out of favor.
• About 35-40% of the electorate were
vehemently opposed to Hillary Clinton
from day one, which is a tough road
to hoe for any candidate. Most of this
baked-in opposition came from her 25
years in the public eye, but that’s not
what ultimately did her in. Hillary
Clinton lost this election because she
could never convince voters that she
was trustworthy. This depressed
Democratic voter enthusiasm, and
she didn’t get the turnout she needed
to win. Meanwhile, Trump’s base was
energized and enthusiastic and they
voted.
• I’m very, very glad that I’m not a
journalist. The nearly unanimous
failure of the mainstream media to
even acknowledge the possibility of a
Trump victory will lead to permanent
changes in the way that we talk—and
are talked to—about elections.
• A lot of people have moaned
about polling failures, but now
that the dust has settled, what’s
clear is that pollsters failed to
accurately poll one side: Trump
supporters. Pollsters correctly
predicted Secretary Clinton’s
level of support: her polling
averages were in the 47-48%
range going into Election Day,
and that’s about what she got.
However, Trump’s polling
averages were around 43% but
he also ended up with about 47%
of the popular vote. Many will
speculate about why this was—
but. It looks like claims of a
‘silent,’ under-polled Trump
majority were accurate after all.
• Politics is a game of inches. In a
polarized nation like ours, a swing of
one or two percent in the popular vote
can change everything. To wit: In a
matter of a few short hours, the world
went from speculating about the
death of the modern Republican Party
to taking about the Democrats’
impending time in the wilderness.
Election night was an abysmal night
for Democrats, and their shock was
compounded by its unexpectedness.
I watched this election as closely as
anyone, and I’m here to tell you that
no mainstream journalist or media
outlet even came close to predicting
this Republican wave. Heck, I don’t
Dan Cunningham
- Vice President Government Relations & Education
Like a sportswriter jumping his or her deadline and writing a story before the game is over, I started to write
this article weeks before Election Day. As a political scientist and a campaign junkie, I thought I had a pretty
good idea of how this was going to go. Man was I ever wrong. So here I am re-writing the article, as the
underdog came back and scored seven (10? 100?) runs in the bottom of the ninth inning to win the game
and shock the world. That’s essentially what Donald Trump did on November 8.
So like many of you, I’m trying to figure out what it all means. This election consumed every fiber of my being
for the last year. I breathlessly followed every twist and turn of this dystopian circus, and I have some
thoughts to share. Boy do I ever.